Friday, 7 May 2010

Friday, 7 May 2010

Where now for currencies ?

So we head into the weekend not knowing who will be the next resident of 10 Downing Street, not knowing whether the €110 billion bailout for Greece will be enough, not knowing whether one of the other Mediterranean countries is preparing its bid for EU support and not knowing whether we will get rain or not, although that last one is apparently easier to predict.

What we do know is that the Pound is still offering some of the best levels for Sterling sellers in 9 Months, that the Euro is the cheapest it has been for US Dollar sellers since March 2009 and that the Australasian currencies may well weaken a tad in the days ahead if safe haven buying is all the rage and whilst the Canadian Dollar is still looking good now, it may well weaken as oil comes under pressure. Sadly for those with Sterling in their pockets, even if the Aussie and Kiwi Dollars lose strength, the £ is likely to lose strength faster because the UK economies is far more reliant on and tied to the European Union countries.

It’s a very cloudy view both weather-wise and economy-wise right now and risk management is the key to being currency-wise.

If you thought the recession was behind us, I am sorry to say, it may not be dead and gone just yet. The problem lies in the nature of the credit markets. Bank A may lend to Bank B who lends to Bank C but Bank C may also be lending to Bank A and Bank B may be heavily indebted to Bank D as well. This is also true for countries and the whole world wide web of debt hangs on the premise that each is capable of repaying everyone else. If one bank or country fails to keep its part of the bargain, the whole pack of cards is in danger of collapse.

Peter Elias Agent Commercial www.allez-francais.com

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