Wednesday, 11 May 2011

Wednesday, 11 May 2011

Has the £ turned the corner ?

The Euro has seemingly, at last, taken a long overdue fall after surging 9 cents against the pound this year. The newswires are supposedly full of stories of the Greek situation. Further bail-outs, interest rate reductions, debt restructuring and even a full scale Greek exit from the Eurozone are the possibilities to consider this week.

The net result is the downtrend in £ / € has stopped, and is perhaps now in reverse, although we are in a volatile market, but the £ has moved higher so far reaching €1.14 from €1.10 last week.

There have been previous crisis moments, with Greece, Ireland and Portugal, but the € has to date managed to overcome the crisis thanks to bail-outs & increased stability funds. So, it pays to be cautious in betting against the Euro.

Unfortunately, as ever Mervyn King is talking the £ down at every opportunity, so upward moves in the pound are limited in nature.

So what does this mean for you ?

EUR Buyers

Orders are recommended between €1.14 and €1.15. Big resistance (a ceiling) comes in at €1.15 and €1.16. A fall back to €1.12 levels would concern us and possibly signal a resumption of the downtrend to €1.09/€1.10.

EUR Sellers

The best levels in over a year have provided a fantastic window of opportunity for Euro sellers. £ / € can turn quickly and reverse moves in a matter of days. This happened previously around New Year 2010 when the rate went from €1.15 to €1.19 and back to €1.15 in roughly 3 weeks. This was also evident lately in the move from €1.14 to €1.10 to €1.14 in 2 weeks. A stop loss order above €1.15 would guard against a move which could go another 4 cents higher.

As ever, we recommend that you speak to our dedicated currency dealers for the best information.

Please contact me initially by e-mail

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